(1) Countries that went away from the gold standard sooner fared much better during the Great Depression than those that held longer (like the U.S.)

(2) Average inflation, under the gold standard, is determined by the pace at which gold is mined

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Politics/whynotthegoldstandard.html

photo credit: tao_zhyn

The uncertainty in the economic environment as a result of the government’s growing deficit has provided the perfect storm for gold’s move to the top of the list for investors. With the risk of heavy inflation and a weaker dollar, people’s fears have driven them toward the implied security that gold can hold during these conditions.  To make matters worse, the exaggerated rise in gold since 2003, only compounds investors “being left out” reflex.  It’s very difficult to see and hear how an asset class is rising and not want to be a part of it.

In our evaluation of assets, we lean toward long-term trends.  If you look at a chart of gold prices since 1975 (like the one below), you notice that the price of gold had a similar run in the late seventies hitting a record of $750 an ounce or so in 1980.  Moving forward to 1999 the price was closer to the $300 an ounce range.  Taking a look at the chart, if you invested in gold in 1980, you would have had to wait 27 years just to earn your money back.  This example emphasizes the importance of understanding where you are in a market cycle, before investing in a specific asset class.

photo credit: ethan bloch

The speculative nature of investing in gold is eerily similar to the speculation that we observed with oil in 2007-2008.  With both of these asset classes, there have been multiple reports in the news of how high the prices might rise, which is one of our clearest warning signs for an overheated investment.  One of the latest price targets being promoted for gold was that it could rise to $5000 an ounce.

It’s important to remember that gold itself is not a cash-generating asset.  It may be tangible, but if you are holding gold it can actually cost you money in the transportation and storage of it.  In this article, Vitaliy Katsenelson does a nice job describing the concept of gold as an investment.

The repeal of the federal estate tax is only in effect for 2010.  After this year, the estate tax is scheduled to be reinstated at levels prior to President Bush’s tax cuts becoming law.  So, rather than receiving a $3.5 million exemption per person and a top tax rate of 45% as was available in 2009, 2011 estate tax law will offer only a $1 million exemption and a maximum rate of 55%.  You don’t have to do the math to realize how big of a change this is.

Secondly, there are some unintended consequences that may come into play as a result of this repeal.  A common estate planning strategy is to use something called a “bypass trust” with the intention of taking advantage of the maximum estate tax exemption.  This strategy was used based on the federal estate tax law being in effect.

Since there is no estate tax for 2010, the wording in the legal documents that are the basis for creation of the trust could be problematic.  They might say something like, “Place all of my assets that are not subject to the estate tax into a trust for my children, then leave everything else to my spouse.”  In the worst case scenario, a spouse could be left with nothing as all of the assets are directed into the trust because they aren’t subject to any estate tax.  Most states have some protection afforded the spouse, however, the potential litigation involved could certainly drain the assets being contested.  This could get especially nasty if there were children from a previous marriage involved.

Another consequence of this repeal is the impact on the “step-up in basis” rule.  This rule basically said that whatever valuation an asset had on the owner’s date of death is the value that the heirs could use as their new tax basis.  For example, if Mrs. Smith died in 2009 while owning stock in IBM that she purchased thirty years ago, under the step-up rule, her heirs could use the stock price as of the day of death to calculate basis for any future sales of the stock.

For 2010, things are a little bit different.  Heirs are only able to use the step-up rule for $1.3 million worth of asset appreciation.  Spouses get an addition $3 million in appreciation.  If Mrs. Smith dies in 2010, depending on the size of her estate, her heirs would need to know what amount Mrs. Smith purchased the IBM stock for, any dividends that were reinvested, and stock splits received in order to assign tax basis.  Not only is this a costly change for heirs, but also a documentation nightmare for tax preparers.  Like the estate tax, the unlimited step-up is scheduled to return in 2011.

Many observers of this mess think that Congress will retroactively impose a fix to undo the estate tax repeal.  However, that is certainly not a given and even if it does happen, what new, unintended consequences will be inflicted on otherwise well-laid plans?

At the beginning of every month, during what we’ve coined our long-term investment “Outlook” meeting, our investment team gets together to debate different investment ideas of where we each see opportunity in the marketplace, while also trying to identify potential risks that could trip us up.  This process involves detailed discussions in which we compile a healthy collection of economic data and opinions to determine where the financial markets may be headed.  One of the things we have learned in our meetings is that a big part of being a successful investor is understanding where and how you have a competitive advantage over another investor.  A key to identifying these opportunities is knowing which sources are worth listening to vs. which ones are using biased assumptions to create support for their opinions.  After formalizing how these scenarios may or may not develop, we investigate specific ways that we can position our clients’ assets with the expectation that their portfolios will most advantageously benefit.  So without further ado, following is a summary of a few of the issues we discussed in our January “Outlook” meeting:

• Even though the unemployment percentage still hovers around 10%, this could be yet another positive for future stock market growth.  Typically, high unemployment coincides with the start of an economic expansion which is good for the stock market.

• Consumers and US corporations continue to improve their balance sheets.  Both groups have built up a healthy amount of pent-up demand which will likely continue to fuel the recovery.

• The average age of a car on the road is now 9.5 years old (which is the oldest average ever) and 2009 saw new car sales reach their lowest unit level since 1982, even with the added cash for clunkers steroid shot.

• China is now the largest consumer of cars in the world, which increases global demand for oil however; at some point other energy sources will become viable which would reverse this trend.  We realize that as oil prices rise, pressure for alternatives will continue but in the short-term we are not decreasing our energy holdings.

• One of the pressing primary risks is how smoothly the hand-off will be from government stimulus to private sector growth.  It’s important to remember that discussions about the removal of stimulus funds, interest rate increases, the speed of recovery and inflationary threats are a part of all economic recoveries and are typical for a bull market as it climbs its wall of worry.

• On average the market experiences a 10% drop at some point every year, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that these lingering fears could cause some short-term market fluctuations.

• We feel that US high quality dividend focused companies’ likely hold the most opportunity for 2010.  However, we’re still allocating a significant portion to foreign stocks as a way to add diversity to client portfolios as well as provide a hedge against the US dollar.

• We still see little threat of inflation in the short term as the world has substantial under utilized resources. It will likely take years to re-employ those resources, though we may still get an up tick in inflation in the medium term.

How did your investments fare during the Lost Decade?

Should I be trying to hit the same number every month?

Comparing expenses on a monthly basis can be another source of frustration. There are many fluctuations that occur throughout the year, like holidays, summer vacation, and surprise home/car maintenance issues.

This is why it’s most helpful to measure your progress against a rolling year period. For example: You’ve just finished November, so you will want to measure December 1st of last year to November 30th of this year against the calendar year amount of your budget. If the amount is more, then you know you are a little ahead of pace and you should scale back.

If you’ve been diligent enough to hang in there for a year of budgeting, then you are fortunate enough to have a full year of meaningful comparison points.  So for this month, it would be best to investigate how January 2010 is comparing to January 2009’s data.  Barring any unusual spending activities in Jan. 2009, you should have some useful targets to compare to this year’s spending.

Performing this exercise monthly can greatly improve your overall financial picture as it allows you to have greater control over your regular expenditures.

How many categories should I be using?

Trying to determine which category your expense should go can be very confusing when you have forty to choose from.  Add in multiple subcategories for each of the main categories and you’re about ready to pull your hair out.

Luckily, Quicken allows you to edit the category list which should be your first action step when loading the software.  We recommend using 8-10 categories that will capture all of your spending.  This list includes:

• Clothing
• Communication (Phone, TV, Internet)
• Discretionary (Cash, Travel, Fun, Church/Charity Contributions)
• Food (Dining Out, Alcohol, Groceries)
• Debts (Mortgage, Equity Line, Car Payments, Credit Card or Student Loan Payments)
• Education (Books, Private School, College Tuition)
• Health & Hygiene (Gym Membership, Doctor Visits, Prescriptions)
• Household (Maintenance, Home Improvements)
• Investments (Roth/IRA Contributions)
• Risk Management & Financial Services (Bank Charges, Insurance)
• Taxes
• Transportation (Gas, Repairs, Car Insurance)

By practicing these two steps you should be well on your way to becoming a successful budgeter.

“Advisor Perspectives” recently reviewed the predictive ability of the star rating system over a full market cycle and the results of their study were similar to our experiences.  In a recent letter published by Robert Huebscher, he states, “We concur that the ratings are not an effective forward-looking measure, but that is not how they are used in the industry.  By calling this calculation a rating, Morningstar imparts at least the implicit endorsement of higher- rated funds and an expectation that their relative performance advantage will endure.”

To read the full article and learn more about fund performance over a full market cycle go to:

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters09/Morningstar_Ratings_Fail_over_a_Full_Market_Cycle.php

As many of you know, it can be hard to create a budget and even harder to stick to it.  The key to sticking to your planning is continuous monitoring.  To do so, we generally recommend using software like Quicken that is designed specifically for expense tracking.

Will discussed tax-loss harvesting, an important but often over-looked tax strategy.  Click here to read the article, “Taking the Sting Out of Investment Loses” by Russell Wild, MBA.

In the cover story “Reassessing Risk” by Olivia Mellan, Bill discusses his views on risk tolerance:

“My experience is that many people’s tolerance is directly correlated with recent market performance, so we shy away from questionnaires. I’m also wary of the way people can misjudge odds due to things like familiarity bias or the structure of questions.”

…

“We then discuss with clients how that [performed] under different market conditions, and look for their wince point to gauge whether their tolerance is lower than their capacity. If their tolerance is lower, we’ll lower the max equity exposure.”

Click here to read the entire story on InvestmentAdvisor.com.