Deflation Fighter?

Gold’s average annual return (using average monthly price) from 1980 through 1986 as it followed the inflation rate down is a negative 10%; from 1980 to 2005 it is a negative 2%.  Meanwhile, gold didn’t hit its average monthly high again until over twenty five years later when it began its recent bull run in 2006.  Since 2006, gold has averaged a return of over 17% per year.  However, inflation has hardly been out of control during this time and, in fact, the prevailing fears currently facing the markets are those of deflation.  So how is it that a commodity that has a history of being used as protection against inflation is suddenly a haven in a deflationary environment?

Yosemite Sam’s Investment Choice

Gold is also a reflection of the overall faith (or lack thereof) in the economic and political system. Issues such as the European debt crisis, the Gulf oil spill, persistent joblessness, a housing crash hangover, etc. have created a sense that the problems we face are too big and might lead to widespread economic collapse.  Currencies will tumble in value in a collapse scenario, so the hedge with gold is that you will have protected your ability to trade for goods and services through the relative stability of its value.  That, in effect, is the bet that is being made by those who are pushing gold up into stratospheric territory.  The gold bet in 1980 didn’t break even for another twenty five years (even longer when adjusted for inflation), it will be interesting to see how well today’s gold bet plays out.

At the beginning of every month, during what we’ve coined our long-term investment “Outlook” meeting, our investment team gets together to debate different investment ideas of where we each see opportunity in the marketplace, while also trying to identify potential risks that could trip us up.  This process involves detailed discussions in which we compile a healthy collection of economic data and opinions to determine where the financial markets may be headed.  One of the things we have learned in our meetings is that a big part of being a successful investor is understanding where and how you have a competitive advantage over another investor.  A key to identifying these opportunities is knowing which sources are worth listening to vs. which ones are using biased assumptions to create support for their opinions.  After formalizing how these scenarios may or may not develop, we investigate specific ways that we can position our clients’ assets with the expectation that their portfolios will most advantageously benefit.  So without further ado, following is a summary of a few of the issues we discussed in our January “Outlook” meeting:

• Even though the unemployment percentage still hovers around 10%, this could be yet another positive for future stock market growth.  Typically, high unemployment coincides with the start of an economic expansion which is good for the stock market.

• Consumers and US corporations continue to improve their balance sheets.  Both groups have built up a healthy amount of pent-up demand which will likely continue to fuel the recovery.

• The average age of a car on the road is now 9.5 years old (which is the oldest average ever) and 2009 saw new car sales reach their lowest unit level since 1982, even with the added cash for clunkers steroid shot.

• China is now the largest consumer of cars in the world, which increases global demand for oil however; at some point other energy sources will become viable which would reverse this trend.  We realize that as oil prices rise, pressure for alternatives will continue but in the short-term we are not decreasing our energy holdings.

• One of the pressing primary risks is how smoothly the hand-off will be from government stimulus to private sector growth.  It’s important to remember that discussions about the removal of stimulus funds, interest rate increases, the speed of recovery and inflationary threats are a part of all economic recoveries and are typical for a bull market as it climbs its wall of worry.

• On average the market experiences a 10% drop at some point every year, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that these lingering fears could cause some short-term market fluctuations.

• We feel that US high quality dividend focused companies’ likely hold the most opportunity for 2010.  However, we’re still allocating a significant portion to foreign stocks as a way to add diversity to client portfolios as well as provide a hedge against the US dollar.

• We still see little threat of inflation in the short term as the world has substantial under utilized resources. It will likely take years to re-employ those resources, though we may still get an up tick in inflation in the medium term.

How did your investments fare during the Lost Decade?

He writes:

“The truth is that the falling dollar is good news. For one thing, it’s mainly the result of rising confidence: the dollar rose at the height of the financial crisis as panicked investors sought safe haven in America, and it’s falling again now that the fear is subsiding. And a lower dollar is good for U.S. exporters, helping us make the transition away from huge trade deficits to a more sustainable international position.”

While we agree with Professor Krugman that a lower dollar can help to even out our trade balance, if it falls too low, however, it could create unwelcome inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve will look to prevent an inflationary event by tightening the monetary spigot which includes raising interest rates.  Krugman argues that this would be a disastrous policy move at this stage of the economic recovery.  He was an ardent proponent of government intervention in the form of stimulus and believes that we didn’t do enough.

Click here for the original article, “Misquided Monetary Mentalities.”

http://www.chartoftheday.com

The rest of the story is that the last 12 months of earnings are not
representative of what earnings will be going forward.  Our best estimate is
that at current price levels, the PE ratio is actually around 13 to 17.  Most
definitely not the most expensive market in history.

Much of our research effort involves separating good data from bad data,
which is essential to gain and maintain a competitive edge against other investors.

Here is Bill’s response:

“The housing market is not going to be the engine leading us out of the recession, but clearly it is going to be less of a drag than it has been or should be.”

Click here to view the original article entitled  Pending Home Sales and Affordability Numbers Jump Higher.